In that regard, the most telling part of last night's results was not that Karen Rodriguez was eliminated, but that Paul McDonald wasn't even in the bottom three for that ragged, rambling take on "I Guess That's Why They Call It The Blues" which no one liked. Until further notice, Idol remains the province of sexually non-threatening older white guys who sing "rock," and this analysis reflects that. So:
Perfectly Adequate, But Not At All Contemporary Singers: Ashthon and Karen were just the start of a mass run of female eliminations; Thia and Haley are not long for this competition either, nor is Naima unless she has a few more Umbrellas in her stand. She's the one contestant who can break out of this group. Stefano's in the same boat for the guys -- I did like his take on Bruno Mars's "Just The Way You Are," but without more like that he seems more like Idol pre-Daughtry than Idol post-, which means a pre-Passover exit.
They Do Their Thing Better, But That Thing Is Not Going To Win: James Durbin and Pia Toscano are clearly a cut above those four in terms of consistency and charisma, but I don't sense that's going to be enough to break through. Durbin because of genre, and Pia because thus far it's been all pageant and no originality or showmanship from her, which you need to win on this show unless ... well, that's category #4.
The Jacob Huff/Melinda Doolittle/LaToya London/Kimberly Locke/Big Mike Lynche Memorial Slot For A Clearly Talented African American Singer Who Will Make It To The Final 3-5, But Who Cannot Win: Jacob Lusk. If he doesn't make it that far, it'll be because his performance style is so affected that it starts to turn people off. In essence, he's in the same boat as the two above, only Idol's voters have such a demonstrated history with this type of singer that it bears separate mention.
The Only Woman Who Can Win: Lauren Alaina, because unlike Pia she sings country, and if there are three things we know about Idol, one of them is that the only exception to the second thing is a white woman who sings country music. Lauren fills the slots that Idol purports to be seeking this year -- she's younger, she's marketable, and she's a she, unlike the last three winners. I will not be at all surprised to see her in the final two, nor as the winner.
Your Presumptive Winners: Paul, Casey or Scotty, obviously. Scotty wins if country's just an unstoppable force in the competition (and once or twice, he crosses over into another genre); Paul if he pulls a Lee/Kris/David and starts rearranging stuff more and grows in stage presence; and Casey if he doesn't.
I have a pretty serious concern about this season -- a concern that I've seen mentione elsewhere as well, so I don't think I'm being terribly groundbreaking. With all these producers involved in the song selection/preparation process, I think it will be a lot more difficult for contestants to do the kind of reinvention and rearrangement that has been such a prerequisite for success (and such an enjoyable part of the show) in recent years. Is someone really going to say to a renowned music producer, "no, no, let's do it my way instead of yours"?
ReplyDeleteI am prejudiced on this issue by the fact that I don't care about the current pop music scene but do really like to hear interesting reworkings on AI of songs I know. None of the performances I've heard thus far this season has made me think "wow, they really did something interesting here."
Separately but not separately: while I mostly agree with Adam on the tiers, I am not totally convinced that James Durbin can't go further. This is a great example of one of the (potential) flaws of the new regime. If theme weeks are gone (are they?) and everyone can basically stay in his or her box, then the questions become "does country beat pop?" and "can rock succeed?" I want to hear Scotty McCreery have to experiment with something that isn't country, and I want to hear what James Durbin does on a big band night. Those are the kind of experiences that can pay off big (or lose big) and I hope that the top contestants will have that opportunity.
MJs is reporting that next week has a theme: Motown.
ReplyDeleteI think that Adam Lambert and David Cook were sufficiently mature as artists coming into the show that they'd have had no problem telling Don Was (not (Not Was)) "hey, this is how I'd like to approach the song" and fighting for it. I'm not sure about this year's contestants yet.
Kinda what I was hinting at near the end of yesterday's rambling. It feels to me that the producers are running roughshod over the contestants a bit and they need to start fighting for their interpretations of the songs more. Part of me hopes that this is the intent, though, and that they're waiting to find the real artist in the mix who can push the envelope with them more (while showing talent and a good work ethic, apparently).
ReplyDeleteThe real question is whether it's better to try to rearrange something yourself (with or without professional help) or whether it's better to take the Chris Daughtry route (and, to some extent, Adam, David Cook, and a few others) and choose someone else's rearrangement and make it your own.
Regardless of all this, the key factor in talent shows like this is the journey. If you don't show progress over the weeks, you can't win. For Idol, the "best" normally ends up somewhere between 2nd and 4th. (This doesn't always hold; I direct your attention to Diana and Blake.)
Thus, based on this, Scotty needs to show some more range if he wants to win. Casey needs to rein it in a little and show more command. Paul needs to show some depth and consistency. Jacob needs to show more nuance and control (but I agree with the asseessment above that he can't win). Pia needs to show something different. Lauren needs to show better song choice, better control, and pick songs she understands. James has good stage presence, but needs to show more maturity. That leaves Stephano (everyone else is a lame duck at this point), who, I think, has a good chance at making it to the end if he can gain control of his music more and show some growth. He's got a good story, good pipes, the look, and the talent, but it hasn't matured into something meaningful yet.
I think you are wrong about Lauren Alaina in that a.) she does not sing very well, b.) she does not speak very well, and c.) she's fat.
ReplyDeleteOf course most of this unimpressive group does not sing particularly well. Worst Top 10 group of the last 5 seasons?
Please no big band night! Ugh.
The more important question is: three weeks in, how are y'all doing in the Hitfix Pool? I am a little gobsmacked to find myself in the top ten in Sepinwall's league -- looks like Karen's boot took quite a few people by surprise.
ReplyDeletePaul needs to stop flailing and play his guitar.
ReplyDeleteI think you're wrong about about her size being at all an issue or size generally being an issue on the show, including for women -- Kelly Clarkson, Crystal Bowersox and Melinda Doolittle are the examples that come quickest to mind.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, it's been a long time since this was a "singing competition." It's a vote-acquiring competition, for which singing ability is just one of the factors.
Before I get to the tier concept, a few comments:
ReplyDelete(1) I don't get your love for Jacob Lusk. I kind of want him to be arrested for song abuse.
(2) I'm a little tired of the "White Guys With Guitar" concept. Yes, Seasons 7 to 9 were, in fact, won by white guys with guitars, and yes, two of those white guys with guitars (Cook and Allen) did song arrangement to some extent. But the fact is that there were different factors going on with those seasons that affected how things went down. If you look at Season 7, Cook generally got the highest approval ratings across the board, with Archuleta following. So, top 2, there you go, and the one with the higher approval ratings won. Of the top 4 in Season 8, you had two who were at least kind of polarizing for different reasons (Allison and Gokey), and then a likable guy who pulled out a key showstopper final 3 to end up in the finale against the person who may be the most polarizing contestant in Idol history (Lambert). Season 9 is a bit mystifying, but I kind of think that it ended up being a combination of overpraising and overpimping of DeWyze, Crystal being polarizing, and perhaps people feeling like Crystal had plateaued. And I say this as someone who bought Allison's and Crystal's CDs (but no one else's from their years).
This year, if no woman wins, I tend to think that it will be that the woman who best combines vocals and marketability (i.e., Lauren Alaina) annoys the crap out of a lot of people. Many of the other women seem to have their taste settings stuck to "diva power song." In the meantime, the one woman with a truly adventurous, contemporary style (Naima) has trouble hitting notes.
Anyway, the tiers: I largely agree with your first tier, although not with the label. Naima has a contemporary style---she is the one contestant that I could easily see breaking into the pop charts as they stand now. Her problem is that she can't hit notes, which isn't a problem on the pop charts (unfortunately), but is a problem on Idol.
I think that Jacob and Paul are in much, much, much bigger risk than you do. I think that Paul avoiding the bottom three this week was a combination of lingering good will based on Blackbird and the frequent mentions of his cold (when, frankly, he didn't sound a whole lot different to me this week than other weeks). Paul has a small voice, and he has a poor relationship with notes. I also don't see him growing in stage presence much, as he seems happy with how he performs, and apparently has more stage experience than a lot of the other kids. And you may love Jacob, but ugh.
I feel less strongly about this next one: If Casey doesn't stop shouting every week, he's going to burn off the good will that HE got from Georgia On My Mind. I feel less strongly about it because of his Top 13 performance, but still. At this point, I'm struggling to remember that I ever liked him at all.
I think that you've got Pia and James too low. Singing generically well with a nice range and looking beautiful while you do it can carry you a lot further in this competition than maybe it should. (See, e.g., Syesha Mercado, Season 7). And James largely hits his notes, has a good range, and actually moves on the stage. If he mixes up rock stuff with the occasional sweet song like Maybe I'm Amazed, I can easily see him in the top 4, if not higher.
I agree that her size isn't a hindrance. In my opinion, it may help her that she's not model thin, as I think it contributes to her potential underdog story creation, at least in people's minds. (Then again, I think she's a beautiful girl, and nowhere near overweight...)
ReplyDeleteI just want to clarify one thing: I don't like Jacob. I just liked him this week.
ReplyDeleteThe only Jacob Lusk performance I have ever seen was "I Believe I Can Fly." If that's representative, I'm with Jenn. He couldn't find the melody, the quiet parts were weird, and the end was just him shouting. I don't mean shouting the song -- it just sounded like there was a song in the background and then some homeless guy was shouting so loud that I could barely hear it.
ReplyDeleteCarrie Underwood was also much bigger during her season than her current size - I can see Lauren winning or being a finalist and then getting Carrie's trainer/size 0 makeover.
ReplyDeleteFair enough, it's certainly not a "singing competition." But articulation, personality and attractiveness do matter. But for me for her, she just doesn't have it, dawg. (And neither Crystal Bowersox or Melinda Doolittle won but had significantly more developed styles and instruments).
ReplyDeleteOh - I clearly left out the part where I said once again how much I hate Jacob Lusk.
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Then again, I thought his "Alone" was by far his best performance to date.
I thought Jacob's performance of Alone was similar to UCLA's performance against Michigan State. Absoulutely awesome to start. Then it got so awful that he nearly wiped out all the good work he had done beforehand.
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