Wednesday, April 15, 2009

YOU WORK ALL YOUR LIFE FOR THAT MOMENT IN TIME, IT COULD COME OR PASS YOU BY; IT'S A PUSH OF THE WORLD, BUT THERE'S ALWAYS A CHANCE IF THE HUNGER STAYS THE NIGHT: Idol results are in, and I am livid.

So they protect someone who Simon acknowledged has no chance of winning, and instead give each competitor a 28% chance of going *next* week ... except we know that Adam and Hokey Gokey are safe, so it's really a 40% chance a that potential finalist in Allison or Kris will go (someone, correct my math?) while Matt himself is more likely to stay b/c of the rallying effect, though less likely because Disco is a bad theme week for him. What does that make the odds of neither Allison or Kris going home next week?

[Also, DialIdol is continually undercounting Kris' popularity. Any guess as to why?]

I've been asked, well, what about the tiers?, since we all "know" that it's Adam v. Hokey Gokey in the finals anyway, and this won't affect that conclusion in the slightest. Except we don't know that. At this point last year, we'd have all said YDA was beating Cook in the finals; the year before, we'd have had Blake over Melinda as the most likely outcome; and Daughtry over (Hicks or McPhee) in 2005, with the notion of Elliot being a deserving third place still seeming a bit odd. There is a lot of competition left to go and all we can be confident about is that Matt < (Allison or Kris), and either of them could realistically slip past Danny (or even Adam) into the finals, just as Tamyra, Daughtry and Melinda failed to make the finals. And now both are in real risk next week, and for what? So that Matt can make it past Anoop and Lil? Not worth the use of Idol Immunity.

The best sign that it's still Adam v. Danny is that neither have been bottom 3 year. Nor has Kris.

remarks revised & extended after initial teaser post.

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