A List Of Things Thrown Five Minutes Ago

IDLE COMPUTATIONS: The changes in Idol's semifinals will make for a much different show, bringing a different type of talent into the final twelve:

• Before: Survive from 24 to 20 to 16 to 12 -- a 5/6, then 4/5, then 3/4 chance of advancing from week-to-week, an overall success rate of 50%. "Bottom two of each gender go" means that the goal is to not-suck for three straight weeks; no advantage to being a top vote-getter.
  
• Now: Three weeks, but each competitor has a 1/4 chance of advancing the first time, and then a (9 or 10, they've said) chance in 27 of advancing to a wild card round in which three will be selected by the judges, an overall 33.33% success rate.

What does this mean? It means that one great performance gets you into the final twelve this time, and consistency isn't as much of a factor. It's good news if you're a one-trick pony like Justin Guarini ("Get Here") or John Stevens, bad if your selling point is your competence rather than flash -- does an Elliott Yamin make it to the finals if he has to blow everyone away once? Jordin Sparks? Syesha Mercado? And remember that "Hello" was David Cook's third semifinal song -- neither "Happy Together" nor "All Right Now" probably would have advanced him into the final twelve.

Of course, given only one chance, Cook probably doesn't sing "Happy Together" in the first place -- he reaches high, pulls out a "Hello" or a "Billie Jean" sooner, and history rights itself. So maybe we do see more adventurous choices sooner and we won't feel like we already know everyone well by the time the Final 12 begins ... but I'm willing to guarantee that we'll also have 1-2 flukes make it through who'll be completely exposed soon enough. Song choice, gang.