Friday, April 15, 2005

TO CRUSH TOM'S ENEMIES, TO SEE THEM VOTED OUT BEFORE HIM, AND TO HEAR THE LAMENTATIONS OF JANU: And now, after a first-half of a Survivor season that was truly outstanding television, we shift to a show that won't contain any strategic tension maybe until we reach the final four.

Let me be absolutely clear: Coby was an idiot, and Our Hero Tom played the situation perfectly.

Coby talked a good game like he was a Hatch/Rob C.-level strategist. But he did absolutely nothing to further any particular plan to win. Simply telling Stephanie (the Allen Iverson of reality tv -- the worse things got, the harder she busted her ass to win) everything that's going on isn't a plan; you have to tell her what you want her to do and, more importantly, offer her something to persuade her to vote with you. Make her believe that the bulk of the tribe is lying to her and wants her out immediately, and offer her the Final Four is she aligns with you.

If Coby were smart, and he knew that some day Gregg and Jenn were ready to turn on Tom and Dolphin Boy, then the time to do that was right away. He blew it royally, and doubled that by doing that quickest, dumbest self-elimination in an immunity challenge since Scout tried to hang on the pole.

(And, by the way, as sucky as Scout was, Janu makes her look like she was Colby Donaldson times Andrew Savage. Dear Miss Showgirl: This show is called 'Survivor'; it's not called 'Lie Around And Decompose'.)

Instead, Coby's "master strategy" seemed to involve working with the Tom and Dolphin Boy to knock off the weaker women, then have Gregg and Jenn (and, I guess, Steph) turn on Tom and Ian and their allies. What he failed to account for, however, was that there was no reason for the other clique keep him around, and every reason to eliminate him early -- he was the sole shit-stirrer/strategist outside their friendly foursome, and there was every reason to oust him as soon as possible to prevent him from organizing a coup.

So, now, what? Now you can knock off the useless Janu and Caryn, which no one will have a problem with, because Gregg and Jenn aren't going to realize that, without those two votes, there's no way to knock Tom out. (To be sure, if they're worried, Tom and Dolphin Boy can just knock off Gregg, the last remaining immunity-run threat, next week. I don't think they feel that sense of urgency.)

We're down then to six, and Gregg and Jen may not still realize that Stephenie's in a foursome with Tom, Ian and Katie. It's too late. Welcome to your final four, and if Steph makes it that far, she's one of the Gratist Survivors Evir, no matter what else happens.

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